Monday, May 7, 2012

IMF and World Governments Listen Up

It is well worth a listen.

 On the 28 March 2012 at the London School of Economics, I asked the Question what the Electorate of France and Greece thought about current Policies and would they Vote against them

At 49 minutes in

Amazing in late March IMF et al did not think there was any Concern there would be a massive electoral swing away from the current Austerity program. "As stated it was a Secondary Issue"

Listen Up IMF, ECB, FED Banks and Government.

People have had enough of paying the price.

This time No more Bailouts let Bondholders Banks and IMF take the hit.

Sunday, May 6, 2012


To the Chancellor of the Exchequer

Dear Mr Osborne

Re : Immediate Settlement of All PPI Claims

On behalf of the British Public I order you to immediately FORCE BANKS TO PAY-OUT PPI NO QUESTIONS ASKED if a Claimaint has a  a policy that Conforms to the Defintition of PPI given by Financial Services Authority

The FSA  define Payment Protection Insurance as  43A non-investment insurance contract which has elements of a general insurance contract and the benefits of which are described as enabling a policyholder to protect his ability to continue to make payments due to third parties, or can reasonably be expected to be used in this way.

1.     FSA define Non-investment Insurance Contract  as non-investment insurance contract
2.      FSA define General Insurance Contract as general insurance contract
(in accordance with article 3(1) of the Regulated Activities Order (Interpretation: general)) any contract of insurance within Part I of Schedule 1 to the Regulated Activities Order (Contracts of general insurance), namely:
(a) accident (paragraph 1); (b) sickness (paragraph 2); (c) land vehicles (paragraph 3); (d) railway rolling stock (paragraph 4); (e) aircraft (paragraph 5); (f) ships (paragraph 6); (g) goods in transit (paragraph 7); (h) fire and natural forces (paragraph 8); (i) damage to property (paragraph 9); (j) motor vehicle liability (paragraph 10); (k) aircraft liability (paragraph 11); (l) liability of ships (paragraph 12); (m) general liability (paragraph 13); (n) credit (paragraph 14); (o) suretyship (paragraph 15); (p) miscellaneous financial loss (paragraph 16); (q) legal expenses (paragraph 17); (r) assistance (paragraph 18).2

For ease of reference :

Mr Osborne No questions were asked when we Bailed Out the Financial System. The Banks should Not be asking questions if a Complaintant has a ppi Policy as defined by FSA and should immediately settle.

This may cost more than the £5 Billion the British Bankers Associations claimed in their Judicial Review Claim  No : CO/10619/2010 claimed it would cost the British Banking Industry but if you are true to your word that you want to get the Economy moving again, getting the Banks to settle the Millions and Millions of claims still outstanding will immediately get Money Back into the pockets of ordinary citizens.

All replies to this Blog will be issued as a Petition for you to immediately FORCE BANKS TO SETTLE.

Why should ordinary citizens after 1 year still be waiting for compensation and possibly wait perhaps another year while the Financial Ombudsman deals with a huge back-log of cases, due to Banks simply refusing to settle cases Immediately


Toby Chambers

Saturday, May 5, 2012

Is Social Media the next Big Thing ?

Times Change are you changing with the times ?

While I agree that Facebook IPO is initially over-priced, Social Media is the next Hot Investment.

Why ?

Social Media has quickly become a new medium for information sharing and being up to date with the latest information. It is fast quick efficient and offers individual freedom to select different points of view.

Consumers are now sceptical of traditional newspapers particularly since the News Corp Phone Hacking Scandal, this only confirmed our suspicion.

While there will be a place for traditional printed newspapers we are all reading our news on Mobiles and the Mobile platforms require short sharp messages as we scan through the information selecting what we want.

I have been using mobile news since 2008 and while it took time to adjust as many web platforms were not compatible and at first cumbersome, this has radically changed with Mobile platforms now first priority and so navigation is great.

As the use of Social Media has grown, so to has Brand advertising and while it is still in its infancy it is projected to reach over $ 8 Billion in advertising revenue by 2015. In the current tight ad budgets this is a market to be in

Traditional newspapers simply can't compete with Social Media and will be left stranded if they largely rely on traditional printed material.

As an investment strategy Social Media sounds very promising.

Friday, May 4, 2012

End of the Commodity Super Cycle ?

Is the beginning of May 2012 the end of the Commodity Super Cycle ?

I possed this question to Mr Ruchir Sharma at his presentation "Breakout Nation" LSE on 30 April 2012 and following his presentation I suggested that we pencil in this date as the beginning of the end of the Commodity Super Cycle.

Listen to the presentation

The Key reasons for an end to Commodity Super Cycle as discussed in the presentation plus my own thoughts and analysis

1. High commodity prices have resulted in many new mines being developed and have taken many years to come on-stream.

2. China's rapid growth has come to an end. Lower overall demand will feed into commodity producers constantly accepting lower prices, rather than has been the case in recent years of producers dictating prices.

3. The Euro-zone is now clearly back in Recession, with little prospect for rapid growth.

4. High commodity prices have depressed overall disposable income and feed into lower overall consumption. In the coming years overall demand for commodities will be well below the levels we have recently seen as the growth of the developing nations slows considerably.

5. The Commodity producing countries, have seen large capital inflows with their currencies now far too strong, resulting in loss of productive competitiveness. Australia Brazil  case in point.

6. The Financialization of commodities is coming to an end. I suggest that we are now entering a phase similar to 2008, although this time the general public will not stomach the bailouts of Financial Firms and we will soon witness a financial crisis much worse than 2008. In 2008 several big named financial firms were able to use "Bailout Money" to stock-up on Commodities, but this time that luxury will not be possible as their own financial survival depends on liquidating everything.

7. Consumers in the Developed world have altered their behaviour and now are very concerned about purchasing fuel efficient vehicles, using public transport as an alternative, walking and cycling. This can clearly be evidenced with Western European oil demand now below consumption recorded in 1994.

8. Renewable Energy, while still in its infancy provides a glimmer of hope that the renewable energy industry will be a growth area, leading economies out of the Current Depression including Greece, resulting in lower overall demand for traditional coal and oil.

9. Recycling and reclaiming materials is growing as more efficient methods of processing recycled materials are developed, reducing the need for the extraction of raw commodities. Consumers are also playing their part with a Boom in mend and repair.

10. High Food Prices have been forcing city dwellers to either Grow Their  or Own, local community food growing or has recently been cited in Greece returning to farming as a way of earning a living.  Improved climatic factors will also improve crop yields in the coming years.

As of writing today 4 May 2012 WTI Crude  had a 5% fall before settling  below the $100 and I suggest that in the coming weeks with no stable government in Greece, just like we saw in 2008, there will be rapid unwinding of Commodity Contracts and it will be a race to the bottom.

Time will only tell if the analysis is Spot On.

You be Judge and Jury.

All I can offer is that the quicker the Commodity Bubble Unwinds, the quicker the world's economic engine will spring to life.

I will leave with one final thought

The Book "Breakout Nation" by Mr Sharma offered a set of principles in identifying countries with potential to be new growth Nations. I suggest Greece could be that New Economic Miracle and could easily take-over from China in being a production powerhouse for Europe, once Greece exits the Euro.